How low can the Bitcoin price go?


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Bitcoin (BTC) has spent over a 12 months in a downtrend since its $69,000 all-time highs in November 2021.

BTC value efficiency has given buyers as much as 77% losses, however how a lot decrease can BTC/USD actually go?

Bitcoin merchants and analysts have lengthy agreed that 2022 is the 12 months of the most important cryptocurrency’s latest bear market.

After coming off all-time highs to start out the 12 months at round $46,000, BTC/USD has provided little aid and has since returned to ranges not seen since November 2020, knowledge from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirms.

That has positioned the pair in historic bear market backside territory — having misplaced a most of round 77% since the latest peak, Bitcoin may have little room left to fall.

This time, nevertheless, could also be completely different. Cointelegraph takes a take a look at what among the hottest crypto market commentators suppose relating to the place Bitcoin will backside.

CryptoBullet: “Comfy shopping for” round $16,000

One well-known social media persona is sticking by a principle from earlier in 2022 — and it’s all about one specific on-chain metric.

For CryptoBullet, Cumulative Worth Days Destroyed (CVDD) nonetheless provides a key perception into macro BTC value bottoms.

CVDD basically counts how a lot “hodled” days a coin has collected when it strikes to a brand new pockets. It’s expressed as a ratio to the general age of the market, divided by 6 million, which analytics useful resource Woobull explains is a “calibration issue.”

Trying again in time, CVDD has acted as a big line within the sand, and if this time isn’t any completely different, BTC/USD may already be giving consumers the absolute best revenue alternative.

In line with Woobull, CVDD presently lies at round $15,900.

“I really feel comfy shopping for Bitcoin right here at CVDD,” CryptoBullet told Twitter followers on Nov. 26.

“Can it go decrease? After all it may. If one other crypto firm goes bankrupt or one thing like that $BTC will fall beneath CVDD, however not by a lot. The majority of the downtrend is over.”

Bitcoin Cumulative Worth Days Destroyed (CVDD) annotated chart. Supply: CryptoBullet/ Twitter

Filbfilb: $6,500 as “worst case situation”

An outdated hand within the crypto market is consistently reevaluating simply how dangerous the bears could chunk this time round.

Filbfilb, co-founder of buying and selling suite Decentrader, lately told Cointelegraph that BTC/USD may see $10,000 across the new 12 months if macro situations worsen.

That was earlier than the FTX debacle, nevertheless, and the ensuing gas added to the bear market hearth has precipitated him to rethink.

In a livestream along with fellow co-founder, Philip Swift, Filbfilb thus outlined areas of strong bid support as potential bottoms.

These range, nevertheless — a big “ladder” of bids lies just under spot value and focuses on $12,000-$14,000. On the similar time, final help may come as little as $6,000.

Filbfilb moreover famous {that a} black swan occasion similar to additional crypto bankruptcies may set off a spike by way of the higher help area, opening up the potential for $10,000 or decrease subsequent.

A visit to the $6,000 zone, nevertheless, is “unlikely” below present circumstances, he suggested.

BTC/USD 1-week candle chart (Bitstamp) with liquidity heatmap knowledge. Supply: TradingView

Many eyes on the $14,000 prize

Filbfilb’s higher band of bid help on alternate order books is a well-liked goal for an rising variety of commentators.

Associated: Will Bitcoin hit $110K in 2023? 3 reasons to be bullish on BTC now

As Cointelegraph reported, $14,000 is now a big spot on the radar, and entries round there are already being deliberate.

That space would additionally carry BTC/USD losses versus all-time highs in keeping with these of earlier bear markets.

BTC/USD drawdown vs. all-time highs chart. Supply: Glassnode

Not solely that, however $13,900 varieties a big help line on weekly timeframes, dealer and analyst Rekt Capital notes, one which has remained untested for the reason that second half of 2020.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Supply: Rekt Capital/ Twitter

The views, ideas and opinions expressed listed here are the authors’ alone and don’t essentially replicate or signify the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.