How long will the bear market last? Signs to watch for a crypto market reversal


The present crypto bear market has induced panic, concern and uncertainty in traders. The dire scenario began when the worldwide market capitalization of crypto dropped beneath the $2 trillion mark in January 2022. Since then, the worth of Bitcoin (BTC) has decreased by over 70% from its all-time excessive of $69,044.77, reached on Nov. 10, 2021. Equally, the values of different main cryptocurrencies akin to Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), Avalanche (AVAX) and Dogecoin (DOGE) have decreased by round 90%. 

So, does historical past inform us something about when the bear market will finish? Let’s begin by analyzing the causes of the 2022 bear market.

Catalysts of the 2022 bear market

There are a number of components that prompted the present bear run.

First off, the build-up to the bear market began in 2021. Throughout this era, many regulatory authorities threatened to introduce stringent laws governing cryptocurrencies. This created concern and uncertainty out there. For instance, the USA Securities and Trade Fee (SEC) issued a lawsuit against Ripple. In addition, China banned Bitcoin mining, resulting in most of its BTC miners having to relocate to other countries.

A worldwide improve in inflation and rising rates of interest instilled concern and uncertainty out there, leading to decrease crypto funding than anticipated. Though there may be a lot publicity pertaining to the USA’ inflation and rates of interest, different nations akin to India have skilled related challenges.

Notably, earlier this 12 months, the Federal Reserve introduced that it was taking stringent measures to “speed up tapering of month-to-month bond purchases.” In different phrases, the USA deliberate to introduce measures that decelerate its financial system to manage the ever-rising inflation within the nation. The next graph reveals the inflation pattern from 2016 to 2022.

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FRED shopper worth index. Supply: St. Louis Fed

In impact, to cut back the speed of inflation, the Federal Reserve elevated the federal funds fee two occasions through the 12 months. This lowered the disposable earnings of U.S. residents, thereby dampening funding efforts in threat belongings like cryptocurrencies.

United States rate of interest. Supply: St. Louis Fed

Crypto analysts imagine that leverage was one other major trigger of the present bear market. Leverage entails pledging a small sum of money as collateral to borrow a big quantity for investing. On this case, traders borrow from exchanges to finance their investments out there.

The draw back of leverage is that after the worth of an asset begins to fall, the buying and selling positions liquidate, leading to a cascading crash of cryptocurrency costs. This lowers investor confidence and tends to inject concern and uncertainty into the market.

Whereas conventional markets have circuit breakers and protections, this isn’t the case for the crypto market. Take, for instance, the recent collapse of Terra, its LUNA token — now often known as Terra Traditional (LUNC) — and its TerraUSD (UST) stablecoin. Throughout the similar interval, a number of different crypto corporations akin to Celsius, Three Arrows Capital and Voyager Capital filed for chapter.

Indicators that the bear market is nearing an finish

Analysts examine market cycles to foretell when a bear market will come to an finish. Usually, market cycles embrace 4 phases: accumulation, markup, distribution and a mark-down. For Bitcoin, the market cycle happens over 4 years, or 1,275 days. The final part often pertains to the bear market.

Bitcoin market cycles. Supply: Grayscale

In response to Grayscale, the crypto bear market commences when the realized worth of Bitcoin surpasses its market worth. Grayscale defines realized worth as:

“The sum of all belongings at their buy worth or realized market capitalization, divided by the market capitalization of the asset which offers a measure of what number of positions are in or out of revenue.”

The realized worth of BTC surpassed the market worth on June 13, 2022. The desk beneath reveals the costs of Bitcoin when its market worth was higher than the realized one.

BTC’s realized worth vs. market worth. Supply: Grayscale

It’s fascinating to notice that by July 12, the cycle had accomplished 1,198 days. Because the complete cycle takes 1,725 days, by that date there have been 4 months till the realized worth would cross above the BTC market worth.

Nonetheless, on the finish of the 4 months, Bitcoin would wish one other 222 days to succeed in its earlier all-time excessive. Which means that from July, it might take a complete of 5 to 6 months for the bear market to finish. The graph summarizes the anticipated trajectory of the present crypto cycle.

The 2020 bear and bull market cycle. Supply: Grayscale

If the present market cycle takes the same construction because the 2012 and 2016 cycles, and if Grayscale’s findings are correct, then the bear market may finish between November 2022 and December 2022.

Associated: Why is the crypto market down today?

How lengthy Bitcoin merchants anticipate the bear market to final

Bitcoin maximalists are likely to look towards the Bitcoin halving as an indicator to foretell the following bull run. Inspecting historical past, BTC has shaped a peak inside 18 months of every Bitcoin block reward halving.

Historical past of Bitcoin halving. Supply: Swyftx

Previously, Bitcoin’s halving has preceded crypto bull runs, as indicated within the above graph. So, BTC maxis who contend the halving schedule instantly impacts the bullish or bearish nature of Bitcoin is perhaps right.

Bitcoin and S&P 500 correlation chart on Oct. 20, 2022. Supply: TradingView

The 2022 bear market is exclusive attributable to a number of causes. First, key macroeconomic variables akin to excessive rates of interest and hovering inflation elevated its impression. As nicely, the Terra-LUNA crash and excessive leverage all through your entire crypto ecosystem contributed to the onset of the bear run.

Remarkably, that is the primary bear market in which there’s a correlation between the inventory market and Bitcoin, with a correlation fee of over 0.6 in July 2022, according to Coin Metrics information. It’s also the primary time that the worth of BTC has fallen beneath the earlier cycle peak, with the worth of BTC falling beneath $17,600.

BTC and S&P 500 correlation fee. Supply: Coin Metrics

The contrasting conditions between the 2021 crypto bull run and the 2022 bear market have baffled crypto traders. Analysts imagine that the present bear market will finish between November 2022 and December 2022, with a attainable bull run beginning between the top of 2024 an early 2025.